Assessment of walleye pollock in the eastern Bering Sea
Working draft for 2026
This draft supports an early September 2026 review and a final November 2026 assessment. Several annual inputs are pending. Values and conclusions must not be carried into the executive summary until their source, review milestone, and validation status are recorded in the annual tracking tables.
1 Executive Summary
1.1 Summary of changes in assessment inputs
The last accepted assessment was completed in 2024. No operational assessment was completed in 2025. The 2026 assessment will incorporate validated new data available for the September and November review milestones. TODO: summarize the final data additions and identify preliminary or unavailable components.
1.2 Changes in the data
TODO: populate from the data delivery and validation table (records/data-sources.csv) after the September data freeze. Separate new fishery, BTS, ATS, AVO, FT-NIRS, and ecosystem information.
1.3 Changes in assessment methods
The 2026 bridge begins from the accepted 2024 Model 23 configuration. Work conducted during 2025 in response to the CIE review will be introduced sequentially after its exact source and configuration are confirmed. TODO: list each method change and its effect relative to the data-only bridge.
1.4 Summary of results
TODO: add results only after the candidate base model, diagnostics, and projections are validated.
1.5 Responses to SSC, Plan Team, and CIE comments
TODO: separate CIE responses, recurring general comments, and stock-specific Plan Team or SSC comments. Link every response to evidence.
2 Introduction
TODO: update only material that changed since the 2024 accepted assessment and cite that assessment for stable background.
3 Fishery and Management History
TODO: update catch, ABC, TAC, OFL, fishery distribution, and bycatch through the confirmed terminal years.
4 Data
4.1 Data readiness
The current inventory is maintained in the data delivery and validation table (records/data-sources.csv). Candidate files are not final inputs until their provider, version, units, processing, and review status are confirmed.
4.2 Fishery data and FT-NIRS ages
TODO: document catch-at-age, weight-at-age, sampling, strata, and the treatment and validation of FT-NIRS ages.
5 Survey Data
TODO: document BTS, directed acoustic-trawl, and AVO delivery versions, survey timing, coverage, uncertainty, age compositions, and processing changes.
6 Other Data
TODO: distinguish contextual ecosystem information from data entering the model likelihood or projections.
7 Analytic Approach
7.1 Bridge models
The bridge sequence is: 2024 reproduction; September 2025 post-CIE development reconstruction; 2026 data-only update; and sequential addition of approved method changes. TODO: report objective values and key outputs at every step.
7.2 Candidate base model and alternatives
TODO: define the September and November candidate models and the rationale for each alternative.
8 Results
TODO: add estimates, data fits, convergence checks, profiles, retrospectives, MCMC diagnostics, and model comparisons.
9 Projections and Harvest Recommendations
TODO: document the terminal-state export, weight-at-age treatment, recruitment assumptions, standard scenarios, OFL, maximum permissible ABC, and recommended ABC.
10 Risk Table and ABC Recommendation
TODO: complete after the evidence and projection results are final.
11 Area Allocation of ABC
TODO: report the applicable method or state why this section is not applicable.
12 Status Determination
TODO: report overfishing, overfished, and approaching-overfished determinations.
13 Flimit
TODO: complete according to the 2026 guideline requirement.
14 Ecosystem Considerations
TODO: summarize decision-relevant ecosystem information without conflating contextual evidence with model inputs.
15 Data Gaps and Research Priorities
TODO: update from the CIE review and subsequent work.
16 Acknowledgements
TODO.
17 Literature Cited
TODO: connect the assessment bibliography.
18 Auxiliary Files
TODO: link the final data, model, projection, diagnostics, and review bundles.
19 Tables
TODO: generate from versioned machine-readable outputs.
20 Figures
TODO: generate from versioned machine-readable outputs and provide alt text.
21 Appendices and Working Papers
TODO: link post-CIE working papers and detailed reproducibility material.