2026 EBS pollock assessment workspace

Current records, operational model lineage, and comparison plan

Current status

Important

The 2026 assessment remains an operational full-assessment workspace, not a completed assessment. Its accepted operational anchor is the 2024 Model 23 assessment. There was no operational assessment in 2025; CIE-response and software-translation work conducted during 2025 is development evidence, not accepted 2025 management advice.

The tracking records were last reviewed on 2026-08-07. The summary below is generated from the same records used by the assessment dashboard, so the overview and dashboard do not maintain separate status counts.

Table 1: Current 2026 assessment tracking status.

Record status	Count
Located; needs checking	7
Ready for assessment use	0
Awaiting delivery	5
Open review decisions	8
Model runs planned or underway	9
Parallel implementations in development	1

Located; needs checking means a possible input has been found but its owner, version, units, processing, and suitability have not all been confirmed. It does not mean the input is accepted for an assessment run. No data source is currently recorded as ready for assessment use.

Use these pages and records for the current details:

dashboard: schedule, data readiness, run status, decisions, and deliverables;
working SAFE draft: the developing assessment narrative;
data-source records: delivery and validation evidence; and
model-run records: operational run ancestry and review role; and
model-implementation records: RTMB, Rceattle, and SPoRC bridge evidence and review roles.

Review and delivery schedule

The dates below come directly from the 2026 schedule record. A date containing TBD is not a confirmed meeting or freeze date.

Table 2: Recorded milestones for the 2026 assessment cycle.

Milestone	Target	Purpose	Status
inventory_start	2026-07-17	Document model history and candidate data inventory	active
sporc_september_package	2026-08-25	Complete the SPoRC near-exact bridge package for the September review	active
september_data_freeze	2026-09-TBD	Freeze inputs for early September draft	planned
september_draft	2026-09-TBD	Review bridge, model set, diagnostics, and preliminary results	planned
november_data_freeze	2026-11-TBD	Freeze final assessment inputs	planned
november_final	2026-11-TBD	Final assessment review and recommendation	planned

Two related model tracks

The homepage’s model-and-results plan and the annual run records describe two related but distinct tracks:

Operational assessment production. Reproduce the accepted 2024 run, isolate the effect of confirmed new data, introduce only approved method changes, select the September candidate, replace preliminary inputs for November, and then run diagnostics and projections.
Model-implementation evidence. Preserve the exact ADMB–RTMB bridge, the close fitted ADMB–Rceattle bridge, and the new near-exact ADMB–SPoRC bridge as separate baselines. A matched annual comparison is appropriate only after ADMB, RTMB, Rceattle, and SPoRC use the same accepted data inventory and pass the stated acceptance gates.

The software bridges do not replace the operational Model 23 ancestry, and their different ADMB reference configurations do not support a direct ranking of RTMB, Rceattle, and SPoRC.

flowchart TD
  accTitle: 2026 operational assessment and model-comparison plan
  accDescr: The accepted 2024 Model 23 assessment leads to the 2026 operational sequence of reproduction, separate data and method bridges, September and November candidates, diagnostics, and projections. Separate exact RTMB, close Rceattle, and near-exact SPoRC bridges join a future comparison only when a validated common annual data set is available.
  A["Accepted 2024 assessment<br/><code>Model 23</code>"]

  subgraph O["2026 operational assessment sequence"]
    direction TB
    O1["Reproduce accepted run<br/><code>bridge_2024</code>"]
    O2["Confirmed new-data bridge<br/><code>bridge_2026_data</code>"]
    O3["Post-CIE development bridge<br/>changes to enumerate and approve<br/><code>bridge_2025_cie</code>"]
    O4["September candidate<br/><code>base_2026</code>"]
    O5["November replacement-data candidate<br/><code>base_2026_nov</code>"]
    O6["Diagnostics and projections<br/>retro · profile · MCMC · projection"]
    O1 --> O2
    O1 --> O3
    O2 --> O4
    O3 --> O4
    O4 --> O5
    O5 --> O6
  end

  subgraph E["Model-implementation evidence"]
    direction LR
    E1["Exact ADMB–RTMB bridge<br/>matched parameter point"]
    E2["Close ADMB–Rceattle bridge<br/>separately fitted model"]
    E3["Near-exact ADMB–SPoRC bridge<br/>package due Aug 25"]
  end

  V["Validated common annual data<br/>same observations and processing"]
  C["Future matched ADMB–RTMB–Rceattle–SPoRC comparison<br/>inputs → likelihood → fit → states → diagnostics"]

  A --> O1
  A --> E1
  A --> E2
  A --> E3
  O2 -.-> V
  E1 -.-> C
  E2 -.-> C
  E3 -.-> C
  V --> C

  classDef accepted fill:#f5c242,stroke:#805f00,color:#172b3a,stroke-width:2px;
  classDef operational fill:#e8f2f8,stroke:#005ea8,color:#17324d,stroke-width:2px;
  classDef evidence fill:#eee9f8,stroke:#6d5cae,color:#17324d,stroke-width:2px;
  classDef future fill:#f4f9fc,stroke:#55778f,color:#17324d,stroke-width:2px,stroke-dasharray:5 4;

  class A accepted;
  class O1,O2,O3,O4,O5,O6 operational;
  class E1,E2,E3 evidence;
  class V,C future;

Figure 1: Relationship between the 2026 operational assessment sequence and the separate model-implementation comparison program.

Diagram description. The operational lane begins with the accepted 2024 Model 23 assessment. Its reproduction branches into a confirmed-new-data run and a post-CIE development run whose changes still require enumeration and approval. Those branches inform, but do not yet constitute, the September and November candidates; diagnostics and projections follow the November candidate. In the separate implementation lane, the exact RTMB, close Rceattle, and near-exact SPoRC bridges join only at a future comparison that also requires a validated common annual data set. The SPoRC review package is due August 25; its bridge script and exact paired ADMB reference remain to be recorded.

Recorded model implementations

This table is generated from the model-implementation record. Comparison labels describe the current bridge evidence; they do not establish an operational model choice.

Table 3: Parallel model implementations and their recorded bridge status for the 2026 review cycle.

Software	Comparison	Status	Due	Review role
RTMB	exact_fixed_parameter	validated	not_applicable	Supporting evidence for a future matched annual comparison
Rceattle	close_fitted	documented	not_applicable	Supporting evidence for a future matched annual comparison
SPoRC	near_exact	working	2026-08-25	Parallel model variant for the September 2026 review

Recorded operational run sequence

The following table is generated from the model-run record. TO_CONFIRM and local-only paths remain visible because the exact source configuration or public archive has not yet been established.

Table 4: Recorded 2026 operational model runs and their scientific roles.

Run	Role	Parent	Purpose	Status
bridge_2024	reproduction	none	Reproduce accepted 2024 results	planned
bridge_2025_cie	development_bridge	bridge_2024	Establish development lineage only; not 2025 advice	planned
bridge_2026_data	data_bridge	bridge_2024	Separate data effects from method effects	planned
base_2026	candidate_base	bridge_2026_data	September candidate	planned
base_2026_nov	final_candidate	base_2026	November candidate	planned
retro_2026	retrospective	base_2026_nov	Diagnostic	planned
profile_2026	profile	base_2026_nov	Diagnostic	planned
mcmc_2026	mcmc	base_2026_nov	Diagnostic	planned
projection_2026	projection	base_2026_nov	OFL, maximum ABC, and scenarios	planned

Current evidence limits

Candidate 2025 inputs are located but still need provenance and suitability checks before assessment use.
The exact September 2025 post-CIE source document and configuration remain to be confirmed and enumerated.
The 2026 survey products and current-year catch snapshots remain pending or need confirmed delivery dates.
The exact RTMB, close Rceattle, and near-exact SPoRC bridges use separately controlled comparisons; none establishes updated-data multi-model equivalence.
The SPoRC bridge script, exact paired ADMB reference, checksums, and numerical tolerances remain pending for the August 25 review package.
No September or November candidate, diagnostics package, projection result, OFL, or ABC recommendation is presented as complete on this page.

These limits are deliberate provenance controls. As records are validated, the dashboard and this overview will update from the same source tables.